More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation.

More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation.

We focus on learning the smoothing distribution, i.e. the joint distribution of the latent states given the observations, using a variational approach together with Monte Carlo importance sampling. We propose an efficient algorithm for computing the gradient of the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in the context of streaming data, where observations arrive sequentially. Our contributions include a computationally efficient online ELBO estimator, demonstrated performance in offline and true online settings, and adaptability for computing general expectations under joint smoothing distributions.

In this paper, we consider variational autoencoders (VAE) for general state space models. We consider a backward factorization of the variational distributions to analyze the excess risk associated with VAE. Such backward factorizations were recently proposed to perform online variational learning and to obtain upper bounds on the variational estimation error. When independent trajectories of sequences are observed and under strong mixing assumptions on the state space model and on the variational distribution, we provide an oracle inequality explicit in the number of samples and in the length of the observation sequences. We then derive consequences of this theoretical result. In particular, when the data distribution is given by a state space model, we provide an upper bound for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the data distribution and its estimator and between the variational posterior and the estimated state space posterior distributions.Under classical assumptions, we prove that our results can be applied to Gaussian backward kernels built with dense and recurrent neural networks.

More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable initial distribution and the target distribution of interest which we simulate from approximately using a non-homogeneous Markov chain. To obtain an importance sampling estimate of the marginal likelihood, AIS introduces an extended target distribution to reweight the Markov chain proposal. While much effort has been devoted to improving the proposal distribution used by AIS, an underappreciated issue is that AIS uses a convenient but suboptimal extended target distribution. We here leverage recent progress in score-based generative modeling (SGM) to approximate the optimal extended target distribution minimizing the variance of the marginal likelihood estimate for AIS proposals corresponding to the discretization of Langevin and Hamiltonian dynamics. We demonstrate these novel, differentiable, AIS procedures on a number of synthetic benchmark distributions and variational auto-encoders.

Consider a reference Markov process with initial distribution $\pi_{0}$ and transition kernels $\{M_{t}\}_{t\in[1:T]}$, for some $T\in\mathbb{N}$. Assume that you are given distribution $\pi_{T}$, which is not equal to the marginal distribution of the reference process at time $T$. In this scenario, Schr\"odinger addressed the problem of identifying the Markov process with initial distribution $\pi_{0}$ and terminal distribution equal to $\pi_{T}$ which is the closest to the reference process in terms of Kullback--Leibler divergence. This special case of the so-called Schr\"odinger bridge problem can be solved using iterative proportional fitting, also known as the Sinkhorn algorithm. We leverage these ideas to develop novel Monte Carlo schemes, termed Schr\"odinger bridge samplers, to approximate a target distribution $\pi$ on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ and to estimate its normalizing constant. This is achieved by iteratively modifying the transition kernels of the reference Markov chain to obtain a process whose marginal distribution at time $T$ becomes closer to $\pi_T = \pi$, via regression-based approximations of the corresponding iterative proportional fitting recursion. We report preliminary experiments and make connections with other problems arising in the optimal transport, optimal control and physics literatures.

A body of recent work has focused on constructing a variational family of filtered distributions using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Inspired by this work, we introduce Particle Smoothing Variational Objectives (SVO), a novel backward simulation technique and smoothed approximate posterior defined through a subsampling process. SVO augments support of the proposal and boosts particle diversity. Recent literature argues that increasing the number of samples K to obtain tighter variational bounds may hurt the proposal learning, due to a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of gradient estimators decreasing at the rate $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{K})$. As a second contribution, we develop theoretical and empirical analysis of the SNR in filtering SMC, which motivates our choice of biased gradient estimators. We prove that introducing bias by dropping Categorical terms from the gradient estimate or using Gumbel-Softmax mitigates the adverse effect on the SNR. We apply SVO to three nonlinear latent dynamics tasks and provide statistics to rigorously quantify the predictions of filtered and smoothed objectives. SVO consistently outperforms filtered objectives when given fewer Monte Carlo samples on three nonlinear systems of increasing complexity.